Descripción

With National Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies and other partners, 510 co-developed the Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF) Portal: a digital one-stop-shop of information which supports the decision-making of disaster managers. The IBF Portal gathers forecasting information from meteorological offices or organisations, and translates this into possible impact of an incoming hazard event. This information is displayed in an interactive dashboard ahead of time so the National Society (NS) is able to execute pre-agreed early actions. To date, the portal has been implemented in 8 countries, including Uganda, Malawi and the Philippines. The hazards covered by the IBF portal are riverine floods, flash floods, drought, typhoons and epidemics.

Contexto

The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have been on the rise and are expected to continue increasing. These events often result in fatalities, mass displacement, food shortages, disease outbreaks, and the loss of livelihoods. According to the World Bank, improving early warning systems and response capabilities could save about 23,000 lives and prevent financial loss between $300 million and $2 billion annually.

Taking action before a hazard escalates into a crisis saves lives, protects livelihoods, and reduces human suffering. Anticipatory action is not only faster but also more effective, offering support in advance and minimising disaster impact. For instance, evacuating people before a flood happens, eliminates the need for post-crisis rescue efforts and reduces the risk of loss of human lives. Implementing anticipatory actions lessens the strain on emergency response systems and enhances their effectiveness, even if the anticipated crisis doesn’t fully materialize.

This is where the IBF Portal comes in. It addresses the following needs in disaster management working towards this goal: 

Timely decision-making: It provides real-time information on potential hazard impacts, enabling disaster managers in Red Cross Red Crescent (RCRC) National Societies and other stakeholders in e.g. the government to assess situations quickly and act promptly.

Risk reduction and preparedness: By displaying forecasts of hazard impacts, the portal helps managers implement pre-agreed early actions, minimizing risk and reducing the impact on communities.

Coordination and collaboration: It facilitates coordination among stakeholders like government agencies, NGOs, and international organizations, ensuring access to consistent, timely information for all parties involved.

Data-driven decision-making: Using data and analytics to generate forecasts and impact assessments, the portal supports evidence-based decision-making, leading to more effective disaster response.

Funcionamiento y detalles técnicos

The IBF Portal combines meteorological forecasts created by global or local meteorological agencies, technologies, data such as exposure data (e.g. hospitals, schools) to provide information on possible hazard impact for disaster management and anticipatory action. It is built upon insights from more than 160 co-design sessions with disaster managers and operational personnel in the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement, governmental and civil society stakeholders, as well as input from knowledge institutions and other humanitarian organizations.

The portal aggregates meteorological, hydrological, and socio-economic data, including weather forecasts,  river discharge, and exposed population , to assess hazard intensity and community impact.

Key technologies

  • Geographic Information Systems (GIS): Visualizes hazard impact and exposure data 
  • Machine Learning: Analyses historical data to predict potential impacts and generate scenarios.
  • Early Warning Systems (EWS): Provides real-time alerts based on hazard severity and predefined thresholds.

The portal uses impact-based models to predict the effects on communities and infrastructure. It features interactive dashboards to help disaster managers interpret data and implement pre-agreed actions. It is often (but not necessarily) linked to the trigger levels defined in an Early Action Protocol. Upon triggering of the IBF portal, the NS knows they can start the procedure of requesting a DREF to execute early actions.

Aplicación e impacto

The IBF Portal is used to mitigate the impact of floods, typhoons, droughts and epidemics, by activating pre-agreed early actions – all the steps that protect people, their homes and their livelihoods before a hazard strikes based on forecasts. For rapid-onset disasters such as typhoons, early actions can include strengthening of housing, early harvesting and evacuation of people and livestock.

The early actions can be taken once a trigger model reaches a certain pre-determined threshold and the DREF funding is released. The IBF portal also shows alerts for hazard events of lower magnitude, that are not necessarily linked to an EAP-defined threshold. This way, the NS can undertake early actions also for smaller events. Trigger models exist of different components to predict the impact. The trigger model and early actions are visualised in one location, which is the IBF Portal. The portal integrates and presents the data in a non-alert stage and an alert stage, and guides the user through each step in the alert stage process.

In October 2024 alone, the IBF Portal sent out 1500+ messages to stakeholders.

Uganda :
In Uganda, the IBF Portal is used to provide alerts ahead of major floods. In November 2023, the portal triggered the activation of an Early Action Protocol (EAP) for the first time in anticipation of heavy rainfall and subsequent floods, launching intervention activities pertaining to shelter, Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH), and disaster risk reduction. The team has also implemented the IBF Portal in Zambia, Malawi and Ethiopia.

“The IBF Portal helped me to identify high risk areas prone to flooding and likely affected populations. Affected communities have been able to clear drainage channels and evacuate before hazardous floods hit, reducing impact to houses and averting life loss.” – Joel Kitutu, Project Manager at the Uganda Red Cross Society

The Philippines :

In the Philippines, the IBF Portal is used to anticipate typhoons and has been activated six times since the beginning of its use by the Philippine Red Cross. In November 2019, the portal issued a warning for super typhoon Kammuri (also known as Tisoy), sharing an automatically generated map every six hours as of five days before landfall. The map highlighted which municipalities were likely to be impacted most by the upcoming typhoon. When the trigger threshold was reached 72 hours prior to landfall, the concerned Philippine Red Cross branches were informed of the EAP activation and requested to start preparation and implementation of the pre-identified early actions.

Zimbabwe :
In Zimbabwe, agricultural activities are the primary source of income for 67% of the total population residing in rural areas. The agricultural productivity follows the rainfall patterns of the country, as most agriculture is rain-fed. This makes farm productivity extremely susceptible to drought. The Netherlands Red Cross/510 developed an IBF trigger model for disaster managers at the Zimbabwe Red Cross Society to anticipate droughts. 510’s IBF Portal for Drought visualizes this Trigger Model and gives clear actionable steps for a National Society. Currently the team has ongoing projects for developing an IBF portal for droughts in Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and Southern Africa region (Namibia, Lesotho and Mozambique).